Why Boris Johnson’s Victory and Impeachment Could Augur a Trump Triumph in 2020

Trump is chalking up wins with his trade deals and the GOP is holding firm on impeachment.

Does Boris Johnson’s stunning triumph presage a victory for Donald Trump in November 2020? Johnson rolled the dice, defied the odds and hit the jackpot with the biggest Tory victory since 1987, which was the year when Margaret Thatcher rolled to victory for a third term in office. Johnson’s true hero isn’t the Iron Lady, however, but Winston Churchill. Churchill was the subject of Johnson’s most recent book, The Churchill Factor: How One Man Made History. Now Johnson has made bold to follow in his footsteps by extricating the United Kingdom from the European Union.

At least one American who views the EU with disdain was elated by Johnson’s win. Donald Trump tweeted, “Congratulations to Boris Johnson on his great WIN! Britain and the United States will now be free to strike a massive new Trade Deal after BREXIT. This deal has the potential to be far bigger and more lucrative than any deal that could be made with the E.U. Celebrate Boris!” For Trump the most significant lesson may have been that Johnson was able, not to crack, but to smash the Labour Party’s so-called “Red Wall” in northern England. Just as Trump won in the Rust Belt states in 2016, so Johnson cruised to victory in working-class areas that supported Brexit and want to see a rebirth of their traditional industries. For Trump, it’s a sign that his strength in the Rust Belt was no fluke. These results should also fortify the resolve of Democrats who do not want to run a left-wing candidate, ala Jeremy Corbyn in 2020, and who are focused on regaining Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Trump is also chalking up a win with his China trade deal. Heading into the 2020 election, Trump had to able to demonstrate some progress to the Midwest farmers who have suffered a body blow during the trade war with Beijing. Trump tweeted, “We have agreed to a very large Phase One Deal with China. They have agreed to many structural changes and massive purchases of Agricultural Product, Energy, and Manufactured Goods, plus much more.” The tariff rate currently imposed upon Chinese wares will drop from 25 percent to 7.5 percent and a new round scheduled for December 15 will not be imposed. Had the December 15 round been enacted, the risk of a recession would have increased. China has reportedly committed to purchase $50 billion of American farm products next year and to stiffen its intellectual property laws. Together with the new trade deal with Mexico and Canada, Trump will be able to tout his deal-making prowess as he heads into the election.
Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson gestures as he departs from Hudson Yards, in New York, September 24, 2019. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)